1987 Scripted, 2026 Executed: Three Views on the US Extraction of Venezuela's Maduro
From established legalities to ruthless realities
Let us not kid ourselves when we talk about sovereignty. Sovereignty that is not backed by power is no sovereignty. I want us to get that clear. I know legal sovereignty is one thing, but power sovereignty is another thing. And it is power sovereignty that overrides legal sovereignty. Venezuela had the sovereign power; it was a legal sovereignty but when it came to power sovereignty, there was the United States that nobody could stop. – Professor Bolaji Akinyemi; former Foreign Affairs Minister of Nigeria.
On Saturday, January 3, 2026, the extraction of Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro and his wife Cilia Adela Flores by US Special Forces shattered and blew to smithereens the remaining illusions of the post-war international order. While the world scrambled for fancy vocabulary; labelling the event as everything from apprehended, captured, extracted, “seized and spirited to New York”, kidnapped and even extraordinarily renditioned to ‘high-seas piracy’, Nigeria’s Professor Bolaji Akinyemi offered a more ruthless clarity: ‘Sovereignty that is not backed by power is no sovereignty.’
This is the dawn of the era of Power Sovereignty, a world where legal fictions are swept aside by the weight of demonstrated force. To understand this moment, one must look beyond the immediate cold chaos of Caracas and return to a specific article published in 1987. What the world witnessed in 2026 was not an isolated impulse or knee jerk reaction; it was another execution of a script (an article) written almost forty years ago.
To grasp the magnitude of this shift, we must first look at the wreckage of international law through the eyes of those who spent decades championing it. Professor Bolaji Akinyemi, Nigeria’s former Foreign Affairs Minister provides our first lens: the perspective of a learned legal mind witnessing what he describes as the “Age of Piracy” returning to the global stage.
Velina Tchakarova, the Bulgarian-Austrian geopolitical strategist, moves us away from the moral podium to the strategist’s war room. She strips away the legal arguments to reveal the cold-eyed logic of “Monroe Doctrine 2.0.” In Tchakarova’s framework, we are living in the “DragonBear” era which is a period defined by the tight strategic alignment of Russia and China. From this perspective, Maduro’s Venezuela was not just a dictatorship; it was a “DragonBear” outpost in the Western Hemisphere. The 2026 extraction was a surgical strike to remove a piece from the board before it could be fully integrated into a rival economic and military bloc. To Tchakarova, international law is a luxury of peacetime; in a “Cold War 2.0” environment, the U.S. priority is securing its “near abroad” at any cost.
Why has the U.S. posture shifted so violently from the diplomacy of the past to the “might is right” enforcement of today? The answer lies not in a sudden change of policy, but in a forty-year-old conviction. To understand the executioner of this conviction, we must look at the article written by a New York real estate developer on September 2, 1987.
Diplomatic Dissertation: The Learned Legalist
Nigeria’s renowned international relations expert and former Foreign Affairs Minister Professor Akinyemi appeared on a popular Nigerian media platform (Arise TV) and had some insightful thoughts on USA, Venezuela, China, Russia, Israel, Nigeria and to a larger extent Africa. Below are excerpts of that extensive interview.
This is not a good way to start a New Year. It isn’t at all. This is nothing but piracy, banditry, a violation of international law, a violation of the Charter of the United Nations. There is no justification for it. Now, let us get one thing clear: the former President of Venezuela was not a good fellow. But then, there are so many heads of States who are not good fellows in the world, and nobody has given authorisation to either the United States or anyone to go in and be the policeman of the world in dealing with matters like that. My fear is that; now, nothing prevents Putin from going into Ukraine to pick up the President there. Nothing prevents China from now going into Taiwan and incorporating it. I mean, there are so many of these things that could be duplicated and what type of the world will we be in?
I think that Trump has done a very wrong thing and he should be condemned. I do understand, however, why some of his Western supporters will not be speaking with a tongue in their mouth, because you know things are not really always that clear; that you don’t want to go after someone who is stronger than you and who is protecting you and who has leverage over you. So, I understand why the Prime Minister of Great Britain, even the Presidents of several of the countries in Europe, will be speaking mutedly in condemning what the United States has done. This is a throwback to the time of piracy in the world. You don’t just do it; it is not done anymore. We are past that age and I don’t think those of us who are on this side of the world and who are not as powerful as the “powers that be”; we must really speak out very strongly against what the United States has done. I feel really offended at the pictures that are out. Okay, you’ve picked up the man, you’ve arrested him; do you have to show us pictures of him in handcuffs, being blindfolded? Come on, Trump has behaved like a cowboy. Really, there’s no other word to use for it.
The first thing to get clear is, yes, the former President of Venezuela was not a good guy and he deserved whatever it is, to be removed from office. But the action should be by the Venezuelans themselves. They shouldn’t be counting on the United States. You don’t go into exile in the United States and then be waving the flag because you are happy at what has happened in your country; you may come back to regret it.
And in any case, Trump has just said he intends to make Venezuela a colony; “We will rule it.” Now, what Venezuelans want after all these decades; they should probably remember their fight for independence. So really, while I can understand why they are waving flags and they are happy, it is their job to remove their president; it is not the job of the United States. We should never give a superpower the right and the power to go into any country and remove the constituted authority there, or else you don’t know when you will cross a line and they will say, “It is your turn.” In any case, we’re not talking about democracy, we’re not talking about human rights. Let’s be clear: it is about oil. Venezuelan oil. And that is what has motivated this.
Now, I’m not surprised that this has happened. Look at the amount of military hardware that over the past two months has been sent to that area. Do you think that they were going to turn around at Christmas time to the United States? No. I was expecting this to happen, and it is unfortunate that there was nothing anybody could do about it neither the United Nations, nor whatever organisation they have in that part of the world.
Let us not kid ourselves when we talk about sovereignty. Sovereignty that is not backed by power is no sovereignty. I want us to get that clear, especially in this country where, you know, I know legal sovereignty is one thing, but power sovereignty is another thing. And it is power sovereignty that overrides legal sovereignty. Venezuela had the sovereign power; it was a legal sovereignty but when it came to power sovereignty, there was the United States that nobody could stop.
In reference to China and in reference to Russia, yes, I’m repeating myself: nothing now prevents Putin from going after Zelenskyy in Ukraine, and nothing prevents China from going into Taiwan and taking it over. Absolutely nothing. They’ve seen the precedent that has been set.
Let me defend the United Nations. The underpinning of the United Nations was collaboration among the superpowers in order to stop non-superpowers from creating havoc in the rest of the world. And that is why you had that veto power there. Without the veto, the people who created the United Nations did not give power to the United Nations to counter-manage power. That is why the veto power was there.
A decade ago, some of us were advocating that Nigeria should come up with another blueprint of foreign policy as the anti-apartheid struggle was coming to an end, to keep Nigeria within the global world. The time has come for us to have a good rethink of how we should react to the United States and now to Israel, who are showing interest in Nigeria because we have problems that they think they can help us to address.
If Venezuela had happened, say, ten years ago when we had a unipolar world after the disintegration of the Soviet Union, it would have been understandable. But with the increase in power of China, this is no longer a unipolar world. Why the United States should behave all over the world as if it can impose a Pax Americana is what we should be addressing. And I think that China should actually start to exercise the power that it has now in order to counter-balance the United States.
It is unfortunate that the United States that had a Kennedy, an Obama, or even a Clinton, should now have a Trump who marches all over the world. There are negative repercussions to the behaviour and the body language of Trump and his advisors. When you watch that press conference: “Trump did this, Trump did that, we will do this.” How can you stand there and say you are going to take over a country and that Cuba should watch out, that it may be the next? Honestly, you remember that confrontation between Trump and the President of Ukraine when Trump said, “You may be toying with a Third World War.” Well, it is Trump actually that may be toying with a Third World War with what he has done.
We are all weaklings. We must simply accept it. We are all weaklings. Even the US Congress. This is the same US Congress that twice impeached this man but couldn’t convict him because of his hold over the Republican Party and his hold over that party is even worse now than at the time he was impeached. He has shown the weakness of the American Constitution. Congress was set up in order to counter-balance the White House. Is this not the way Hitler took over Germany? Nobody believed that could happen. Nobody. And yet Hitler did the same thing, as did Mussolini in Italy.
So really, Trump has simply shown us, not only with this episode but with several things he has done, that he is now a Caesar bestriding the world, and the rest of us are like weaklings quaking in our different countries and praying that this man is not going to lead us to a Third World War.
It is China, honestly, that I think has the capacity really to challenge him. I don’t think China will do so because the Chinese don’t want a development that is going to bring their own ascent into power to a halt. But it is China that has the capability to do so.
Ruthless Realities: The Strategic Chessboard
The other article titled; The Revival of Monroe Doctrine 2.0 is by the geopolitical strategist Austrian Bulgarian Velina Tchakarova. Her piece is a no-holds-barred analysis of the present realities of global affairs. Below are some excerpts.
As we enter the turbulent geopolitical environment of 2026, the events in Venezuela demand analysis beyond surface narratives. What unfolded was not a momentary upheaval in a troubled South American state, nor a case of incremental pressure. It was a targeted extraction operation with strategic intent. The removal of Nicolás Maduro marks a decisive escalation in the New Cold War between the United States and the DragonBear, the Sino-Russian modus operandi of strategic coordination that I have long described as China’s economic and technological hegemonic ambition fused with Russia’s military-revisionist disruption capacity. This operation was not improvised. It reflects the operationalisation of U.S. strategic doctrine under Cold War 2.0 conditions, where regional enforcement actions are no longer treated as diplomatic exercises, but as security necessities.
Drawing directly from the U.S. National Security Strategy, the Venezuela operation exemplifies the implementation of Monroe Doctrine 2.0: the restoration of Western Hemispheric dominance to secure Washington’s immediate strategic environment against hostile external penetration. In my analytical framework, Cold War 2.0 is a zero-sum systemic confrontation. The bloc that prevails will define the rules, norms, and enforcement mechanisms of the next international order.
The latest U.S. National Security Strategy explicitly frames the objective as establishing Western Hemispheric dominance within Monroe Doctrine 2.0. The strategic logic is clear. Prevent DragonBear actors from embedding themselves in America’s near-abroad. In this framework, Maduro was not treated merely as an autocrat, but as a Russian-Chinese-Iranian client presiding over a captured state.
This is why the claim that U.S. action in Venezuela was “about oil” fundamentally misses the point. Venezuela indeed holds an estimated 17 to 18 percent of global proven oil reserves, yet it contributes barely 1 to 1.5 percent of current global production. While President Trump has openly indicated that U.S. companies will benefit commercially, this is a secondary alignment of state and commercial interests, not the primary driver. The primary objective is geopolitical. It is the securitisation of the U.S. backyard under Cold War 2.0 conditions.
The Venezuela operation also functioned as a deliberate show of force. It projected U.S. military credibility, reassured allies and constrained competitors. Maduro’s threats against Guyana’s offshore oil projects, which were poised to overtake Venezuela’s production, were emboldened by DragonBear backing. His removal neutralised a growing escalation risk in the Essequibo dispute and reinforced U.S. protection of allied state and commercial interests in its immediate neighbourhood.
Energy remains central to this calculus. Control over oil and gas is control over the power systems that sustain data centers, AI hubs and the infrastructure of the Fourth Industrial Revolution. The belief that digital transformation will be powered exclusively by renewables and future nuclear capacity is analytically detached from physical reality. Hydrocarbons remain indispensable. History offers clarity. Russia did not refrain from invading Ukraine out of respect for international norms. China has not restrained itself on Taiwan due to diplomatic language. Deterrence is produced by strength and demonstrated willingness to act. The CRINK axis has been constrained not by eloquent speeches, but by the use and demonstration of force. Middle powers such as India, Türkiye, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Brazil, Japan and South Korea must internalise this shift. So must European powers. The world is becoming increasingly binary. The space for hedging is narrowing.
European double standards are particularly exposed. European governments supported the forces behind Assad’s ouster for years, refused to recognise Maduro’s rigged elections, yet hesitated to confront the reality of Venezuela as a captured state exporting instability and mass migration.
Ukraine marked the first overt proxy war of Cold War 2.0. It was followed by Israel-Hamas, the Red Sea crisis, escalating tensions in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait and now Venezuela. Venezuela is not an isolated episode. It is a signal that in this era, force reshapes realities and enforcement precedes negotiation. The DragonBear’s advance has met a fortified American response.
The First Cold War survived on deniability and managed separation. Cold War 2.0 is openly coercive, precedent-driven and deliberately visible, because in this era power is no longer implied. It is demonstrated. The board is moving. The choice is stark. One can cling to elegant narratives, or one can confront the reality of power as it is exercised. In this environment, investors, corporations and states alike must think and act with statecraft logic at the intersection of security and economics. And this time, the competition is globally interconnected, explicit, and unforgiving.
Pragmatic Projections: The Long-game Trilemma
As a Nigerian, there are some salient points that should be highlighted. To understand the current President in the United States, one has to have lived in New York City in the 80s-2000s. If you lived in New York City during this period, you will be well acquainted. If you know people who lived in NYC during this period, you will have a better understanding if you asked them about their President. Now, if none of the above, there is an interesting article written by the current US President which sheds an enormous illumination into his mind. The article was published on Wednesday, September2, 1987 in three publications: The New York Times, The Washington Post and The Boston Globe and the then New York real estate developer; paid around 100,000 USD for the frontpage advert-article. That article titled: “There’s nothing wrong with America’s Foreign Defense Policy that a little backbone can’t cure” reveals the mindset of the future leader of America several weeks (two months) after he returned from a tourism trip to Moscow. It is an article you should search for, dissect and ruminate on.
When you juxtapose that article with current happenings orchestrated by President Trump, nothing much has really changed; except for some nations mentioned in that piece. Asides this, the mindset of the person behind the pen then, is no different from the present US President. The transactional and confrontational might is right approaches of President Trump means that the countries he has mentioned he wants to bargain with or invade, such comments should not be laughed off or taken for granted. If you have read that 1987 piece as an individual, you would not be shocked by present happenings. And, if as an individual you are not surprised with anything President Trump does, you wonder why the EU and NATO are acting unprepared and bemused? It will appear that only the Eastern and Baltic Europeans understand what has befallen Europe.
International law and rules of engagements which have historically functioned in a particular agreed fashion have been usurped and turned upside down. The academic professors have been left aghast even though there are various precedents to what the President of USA will do. The only reason why he couldn’t do so much in his first term, was because the old school Republicans stood on business. Before the end of his second tenure (if the constitution is not changed for a third term), more “might is right” confrontations will take place. Just because someone is your ally, does not mean they are on your side; is a quote in the 2025 movie titled Nuremburg starring Russell Crowe and Rami Malek that will ricochet till 2028 and beyond. Regional and continental organisations like the ECOWAS, EAC, African Union, European Union, Organisation of American States, ASEAN and Arab League will come to this inevitable conclusion. The antecedents are as clear as the daylight. With regards Africa, Nigeria, Kenya and South Africa seem to be the only countries who have been able to understand the leader of USA and play to their respective strengths. With recent Nigeria-US engagements, Nigeria’s President Tinubu understands the long game. This long game trilemma between China, Russia and USA has been ongoing for decades.
The aftermath of 2028 is clear too. According to President Trump during a gathering of Republican members recently, if The Republicans don’t win the midterm elections in 2026, he might be impeached. Some months ago, Steve Bannon stated in a podcast or at an event; that, The Republicans had better win the next Presidential election; if not, they will all be going to jail. Whilst this is only likely if The Democrats win the next couple of elections; it is noteworthy to state that President Trump would be immune from this as a 2024 Supreme Court immunity ruling insulates the President even after he leaves office (the rest of his cabinet will be left to their own devices).
While it is gloriously naïve to think that the head of an eco-system will be taken out and everything will be pro-American; Maduro will be a resident of USA for a considerable number of years. The extraction of Nicolas Maduro is not merely a headline; it is a eulogy for the world order we once knew. We have entered the era of power sovereignty, where the map is redrawn not by pens in Abuja, Accra, Ankara, Beijing, Brussels, Cairo, Doha. Jerusalem, London or Moscow, Nairobi, New Delhi, Tehran and Washington but by “backbone” and demonstrated force. As Velina Tchakarova posted on twitter: “2026 will see major political transition. Old regimes and political class are being removed or will collapse. The new leadership is emerging amid global system transformation and new cold war between USA and the DragonBear. Knowledge is free but you must pay attention and connect the dots.”
Succinctly put, the world is witnessing an era where reality TV celebrities and participants are running the governance of a country more like a regime than an administration. The next few months and years in the USA will be a spectacle. What next? RG Collingwood puts it aptly; “The only clue to what man can do; is what man has done.”